UK retail footfall falls 2.9% in September as Budget and Christmas near

Retailers and the British Retail Consortium (BRC) stepped up pressure on Chancellor John Healey on Friday 9 October, less than three weeks before his first Budget on 28 October. The calls follow a 2.9% year-on-year fall in UK retail footfall in September, as Christmas shopping gets under way, according to the BRC and Sensormatic.

The Grocer reported that the BRC is urging the Chancellor to “help the public by helping retail”, backed by an Opinium poll. Separately, LBC reported that the chairman of John Lewis has warned Mr Healey against imposing a “warehouse tax”. Both sets of comments sit alongside the BRC-Sensormatic Footfall Monitor, which showed fewer visitors at every major type of retail destination.

Helen Dickinson, the BRC’s chief executive, called September “sluggish”. She said: “While some seasonal slowdown is expected, this September saw a sharp decline compared to last year, with high streets and shopping centres suffering most.”

BRC and John Lewis press the Chancellor on tax before the Budget

The Grocer reported that the Opinium poll for the BRC found 89% of UK adults wanted the government to focus on the cost of living in the Budget, while 83% wanted action on youth unemployment. Some 77% said improving high streets should be an important part of the measures. The BRC wants Mr Healey to raise the employer National Insurance threshold from £5,000 to £6,000, freeze the CPI-linked increase in business rates, and remove shops from the high-value multiplier.

Dickinson said retail supports 2.8 million direct jobs and that “after two budgets that pushed up costs, jobs and prices are increasingly under pressure”. She added: “The choice is clear: ease the burden on retail and unlock investment in the things people care about.” City AM reported that Tesco chief executive Ken Murphy called on Thursday 8 October for retailers to be exempted from the highest business rates multiplier, saying retailers pay “on average, four times their fair share of rates”.

The John Lewis chairman, Jason Tarry, took a different line on one idea. LBC reported that Andy Burnham, before becoming Prime Minister, suggested higher business rates for warehouses and out-of-town retail developments could make tax breaks for high street shops possible, and that the IPPR think tank proposed a 2% tax on online sales earlier this week. Mr Tarry told the Telegraph those proposals rested on “a fundamental misunderstanding of how modern high streets work”, because stores such as John Lewis and Waitrose act as anchor tenants that “generate the primary footfall that sustains surrounding independent shops”.

Mr Tarry accepted there was a case for online retail to shoulder “a fairer share of tax”. He called for reform of the “archaic” business rates system and for tax-free shopping for foreign visitors to return. LBC said Mr Healey has little room for manoeuvre because the Iran war is adding to inflation and borrowing costs, and he also faces pressure on defence and public services. None of the sources we have seen reports a Treasury response to the retail demands.

High street footfall figures 2026: shopping centres fall furthest

Shopping centres recorded the steepest fall in September, with visitor numbers down 3.5% year on year, compared with a 0.5% decline in August. High street footfall fell 3%, a marginal improvement on August’s 3.1% drop. Retail parks were down 1.7%, worsening from a 1% fall in August, City AM reported.

The same monitor a year ago, reported by The National, showed a smaller fall. Total footfall was down 1.8% in September 2025, after a 0.4% decline in August of that year. The BRC blamed Tube strikes in London, heavy rain and Storm Amy for much of that dip, whereas this year Sensormatic says the weather is not the explanation.

By nation, footfall fell 3.4% in England, 3% in Wales and 0.7% in Scotland this September. Northern Ireland was the only part of the UK to record growth, at 2.1%, having fallen 0.5% a year earlier. Dickinson said retailers there would be encouraged, but that “as the only part of the UK to buck the trend, the wider picture remains gloomy”.

Consumer spending pullback: what is behind the fall

Andy Sumpter, head of consulting and analytics for EMEA at Sensormatic, said temperatures stayed above seasonal norms but that retailers “cannot attribute this month’s performance to the weather”. He said: “Instead, consumers appear increasingly focused on broader economic concerns, including the continued impact of inflation, household spending pressures, fuel costs and uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget.”

City AM reported that inflation rose to 3.1% in August. It also said economists have warned that the knock-on effects of the Iran war have reduced the government’s fiscal headroom, limiting what the Chancellor can do at the Budget without cutting spending. The same report said this year’s heatwaves had pushed online sales up at the expense of in-person visits.

That squeeze on household budgets is the link between the footfall data and the Budget debate. The BRC argues that lower costs for retailers would let them keep prices down, while the Opinium poll it commissioned suggests the cost of living is the public’s first concern.

What it means for shops and shoppers this Christmas

Footfall measures visits, not spending, and the sources give no sales figures for September. Even so, fewer visits mean fewer chances to sell. As an illustration only, a shopping centre that drew 100,000 visitors in a September week last year would, on a 3.5% fall, see about 96,500 this year, or 3,500 fewer people through the doors.

The calendar is now tight. The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October, according to LBC. Black Friday falls the day after Thanksgiving, which is always the fourth Thursday of November, so on that rule it lands on Friday 27 November. PwC estimated Black Friday spending in the UK reached £6.4 billion in 2025, 1.5% higher than in 2024, though it said overall interest had softened.

Sumpter said retailers now face “heightened pressure to convert seasonal demand into store visits and spending”. Dickinson said that by pulling back from another business rates increase, the Chancellor could “help retailers keep prices down and provide jobs across the country”. For readers, the practical point is that local shops are competing hard for fewer visits, so discounts and offers may well feature in the weeks ahead.