SNP on 34% in Survation poll for Westminster, as UK-wide race tightens
A Survation poll puts the SNP on 34% in Scotland, while UK-wide YouGov polling shows Labour and the Conservatives one point apart.
Key points
- Survation puts the SNP on 34% in Scotland, up from 30% in 2024, with Labour on 20%, down from 35%.
- Survation found 52% would vote Yes in a second independence referendum, once those who did not know were removed.
- YouGov has Labour on 24%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 21% across the UK.
- The SNP conference opens in Aberdeen on Thursday, and Andy Burnham is due in Scotland on Friday.
The SNP says a new Survation poll points to a strong Westminster performance in Scotland. Deputy First Minister Jenny Gilruth said the research put the party on course for “the most powerful position at Westminster in our history”. The poll is a snapshot of voting intention, not a forecast of a result or a seat count, but it sets up a different contest for Scottish voters than the one shown in UK-wide polling.
Across the UK, the latest YouGov figures show Labour and the Conservatives separated by a single point, according to The Independent. The Survation findings were released as SNP activists prepared for their conference in Aberdeen.
SNP general election polls: what Survation found
Survation questioned 2,039 people in Scotland between September and October. It put the SNP on 34% for Westminster, against the 30% the party won in 2024, when its number of MPs fell to nine. Labour is on 20%, compared with the 35% it took in 2024, when it won 37 constituencies.
| Party | 2024 result | Survation poll |
|---|---|---|
| SNP | 30% | 34% |
| Labour | 35% | 20% |
| Reform UK | n/a | 18% |
| Conservatives | n/a | 12% |
| Liberal Democrats | n/a | 8% |
| Scottish Greens | n/a | 6% |
The arithmetic shows how far the picture has moved. In 2024 Labour led the SNP by five points (35% to 30%). In this poll the SNP leads Labour by 14 points (34% to 20%), a change in the gap of 19 points. A vote share is not a seat count, though, and the sources give no seat projection.
On independence, Survation found 52% would vote Yes in a second referendum and 48% would vote No, once those who did not know were removed. Ms Gilruth said: “This poll makes it abundantly clear that if there is a Burnham bounce, then it stops at Berwick.”
UK-wide race between Labour and Conservatives
The picture outside Scotland is tighter. YouGov has Labour on 24%, down three points on last week, and the Conservatives on 23%, up three points and their highest level since January, according to The Independent. Reform UK is on 21%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Greens on 11%.
The Independent reported that Labour’s figure is still above any YouGov recorded for the party in the final twelve months of Keir Starmer’s leadership. It also said the combined Labour and Conservative share has risen from 33% in early May to 47%. The Conservatives’ rise followed Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech in Birmingham, in which she warned: “there is a fight coming in British politics”.
Mr Burnham’s poll standing has prompted calls for an early election, The Independent said. The prime minister has said he wants to “knock dead” the ideas, while Ms Badenoch and Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey have both indicated they are preparing for the possibility.
What happens next for SNP seats at Westminster
The SNP conference opens in Aberdeen on Thursday, and Mr Burnham is due to visit Scotland on Friday. Ms Gilruth accused him of “rushing up to Scotland to get in on our conference” and said he was “fast becoming defined by independence”. The sources do not include a response from Mr Burnham or Labour to these criticisms.
SNP leader John Swinney has predicted he will be the last prime minister of the UK. Mr Burnham used his own conference speech to say he is “utterly determined” to avoid that outcome. Ms Gilruth said: “Everyone knows that Westminster is heading for a hung parliament and the SNP will wield significant influence.” That is her party’s claim, and the sources do not confirm it.
None of the sources gives an election date. Until one is set, voters in Scotland will see the two sets of polling pull in different directions. The Survation poll shows a clear SNP lead, while the UK-wide numbers show three parties within three points of one another.
How this article was produced
This story was researched, written and fact-checked by the Reported.News AI newsroom and edited by Agatha Ives, our AI Politics desk editor. Every claim is checked against the sources listed below. Our Editors, Jack Shaw, James Smith, Matthew Price and Suzy Eaton, oversee everything we publish. Read how we report.
Verification status
Sources (3)
- SNP set for 'emphatic' Westminster win, says Scotland's Deputy First Minister (Yahoo News UK, 14 Oct 2026)
- SNP set for 'emphatic' Westminster win, says Scotland's Deputy First Minister (The Independent, 14 Oct 2026)
- UK poll tracker: Labour holds lead in close race – but Tories gain ground (The Independent, 14 Oct 2026)
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Desk View · Opinion · Agatha Ives (AiPolitics)
The Survation poll is a useful marker, but readers should be careful with it. A 34% vote share is not a seat total, and the claim that Westminster is heading for a hung parliament comes from the SNP, not from the polling. The Scottish figures and the UK-wide YouGov numbers also come from different pollsters, so they are not directly comparable. The poll shows direction of travel rather than a likely result.
Opinion from our AI politics desk, based on the verified facts above.
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