Early prisoner release scheme: 4,500 to leave jails early
About 4,500 inmates will leave UK jails before their sentence end date, with 1,350 already freed. The prison overcrowding and early release policy is drawing criticism over supervision.
Key points
- About 4,500 prisoners are due to leave UK jails before their sentence end date, with monthly releases until next summer.
- 1,350 people have been freed in two tranches in October, about 30% of the total.
- The Conservative justice spokesman says the Government is refusing to say how many released prisoners have been tagged.
- The Government says the releases avert a breakdown in the justice system and that 3,300 of 14,000 planned prison places are built.
About 4,500 prisoners are due to leave UK jails before their sentence end date under an early prisoner release scheme, according to The National. The scheme has already freed 1,350 people in two tranches in October, and monthly releases will continue until next summer.
The policy affects prisoners, probation staff and the communities that receive those released. The Government says it is needed because prisons are full, while opposition politicians say it puts victims and the public at risk.
How the early release scheme for prisoners works
The National reports that authorities are using AI tools to support the programme. The National Audit Office said on Wednesday that a tool called Justice Transcribe is speeding up probation service decisions in the early release process. Its statement said this “makes more time available for activities that directly contribute to public protection and rehabilitation”.
The Institute for Government (IFG) think tank set out the supervision rules. Those released after serving a third of their sentence face intensive supervision in the community for the second third, including an electronic monitoring tag until they are three fifths of the way through. Only in the final third are offenders not actively supervised.
As an illustration, not a figure from the sources, take a 30-month sentence. That prisoner would leave custody after 10 months and be tagged until month 18. They would be under intensive supervision until month 20 and would then go unsupervised for the last 10 months.
Prison overcrowding and early release: the backlash
Nick Timothy, the Conservative justice spokesman, said: “Labour said all the prisoners they are freeing would be tagged. Now they refuse to say how many have been, and are covering up the data.” He has called on the Justice Secretary to “come clean”. Reported.News has not seen a Government response to this specific claim.
The Evening Standard reported on one man who was among around 700 people freed in the first phase. He had served 78 days for breaching a suspended sentence for shoplifting. According to the paper, within 24 hours he was allegedly caught on CCTV stealing from supermarkets, later admitted four shoplifting offences and was returned to prison. Detective Chief Superintendent Luke Williams of the Metropolitan Police warned that prolific offenders were being freed despite the obvious risks.
Others welcomed it. Jared Miller, 34, released from HMP Brixton nine days early, called the scheme a “good idea”, according to The Times.
The Government said the releases were needed to avoid a complete breakdown in the criminal justice system. It said: “If we had failed to act, the police would have been forced to halt arrests, putting communities at untold risk.” It added that 14,000 new prison places are planned, with 3,300 already built.
What happens next for the early release scheme
Releases continue monthly until next summer. On the reported figures, 1,350 of 4,500 is 30%, which leaves about 3,150 people still to go. The sources do not give a month-by-month schedule or a breakdown by area, so it is not yet possible to say how many will return to any one town or region.
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total due for early release | 4,500 | The National |
| Freed in two tranches in October | 1,350 | The National |
| Freed in first phase | Around 700 | Evening Standard |
| Still to be released (our calculation) | About 3,150 | Reported.News |
| New prison places built / planned | 3,300 / 14,000 | Government, via Evening Standard |
The IFG warned that early-release exemptions and shrinking cell margins could “wipe out capacity buffers, forcing emergency measures before new cells are built”. It said probation is “struggling to manage offenders in the community”. Whether probation can cope is therefore a key question for the scheme, in the IFG’s assessment.
Your questions answered
Are prisoners going to be released early?
Yes. According to The National, about 4,500 people will leave before their sentence end date, and 1,350 have already gone in October. Further monthly releases are planned through to next summer. The Government says this is to keep prisons able to accept new inmates from the courts.
How to find out if a prisoner has been released in the UK?
The sources do not describe a public way to check. Names of those freed under this scheme have not been published in the reporting, and Reported.News will not guess at a process. Anyone worried about a specific person should contact the prison holding them or the Ministry of Justice. The sources do not report the Government giving a figure for how many released prisoners have been tagged, and Mr Timothy says it has declined to answer.
How this article was produced
This story was researched, written and fact-checked by the Reported.News AI newsroom and edited by Agatha Ives, our AI Politics desk editor. Every claim is checked against the sources listed below. Our Editors, Jack Shaw, James Smith, Matthew Price and Suzy Eaton, oversee everything we publish. Read how we report.
Verification status
Sources (2)
- Calls on UK government to "come clean" as 4,500 prisoners are set for early release (The National, 14 Oct 2026)
- More prisoners released early from London jails despite freed shoplifter reoffending (Evening Standard, 13 Oct 2026)
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Desk View · Opinion · Agatha Ives (AiPolitics)
The Government argues the scheme is needed to keep the justice system functioning, while critics say it puts the public at risk. Both sides agree that what happens after release matters. The IFG's warning about probation capacity and the dispute over tagging figures both point to supervision. Readers cannot judge risk in their own area without published figures on tagging and releases by region, so publishing those numbers would let the public weigh the competing claims.
Opinion from our AI politics desk, based on the verified facts above.
Should the Government publish how many prisoners released early have been electronically tagged?