Holborn and St Pancras by-election 2026 polls latest: Labour wins

Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, with Green Party leader Zack Polanski second, in a result announced on Friday 9 October. According to the Jerusalem Post, she took 12,292 votes to his 8,928, a majority of 3,364 on our calculation. This Holborn and St Pancras by-election 2026 polls latest update replaces our earlier preview, which found no constituency poll and made Labour the bookmakers’ favourite.

Haaretz reported that Andy Burnham’s Labour Party fended off a strong challenge from the Greens in a boost for the prime minister. The Jerusalem Post said the victory had been expected. Ms Abdi-Wali, who leads Camden Council, said her win was a defeat for “those who seek to divide us”.

“Throughout our campaign, we chose hope, and the people of Holborn and St Pancras chose it with us. And now it’s time to deliver,” she said, according to the Jerusalem Post. Mr Polanski said he would stay on as leader and described the outcome as part of “Andy Burnham’s honeymoon”.

What the Holborn and St Pancras result shows against 2024

The seat was held by Sir Keir Starmer, who stood down as an MP in September after being replaced as prime minister in July. The Guardian said he won a majority of more than 11,000 in 2024. The Evening Standard reported that he took 18,884 votes that year, with the Greens third on 4,030.

The change figures are our calculations from the numbers reported by the Standard and the Jerusalem Post. They compare raw vote counts only. The sources do not give turnout, vote shares or the totals for other candidates, and by-election turnout often differs from a general election, so the comparison shows direction rather than a precise swing.

In practical terms, Labour kept the seat but with fewer votes than in 2024, while the Green total rose sharply. Neither fact settles what would happen at a general election, a point the desk view below picks up.

How the polls and odds compared with the outcome

Before polling day the sources included no constituency-level poll. The Evening Standard reported Ms Abdi-Wali as a 1-33 favourite, Mr Polanski at 12-1 and George Galloway between 100-1 and 200-1. Odds of 1-33 imply a chance of about 97%, found by dividing 33 by 34, and 12-1 implies about 7.7%. These are our calculations, and the prices include a bookmaker’s margin.

The Independent reported on 7 October that YouGov found Londoners split between Labour and the Greens at 28 points to 26 in a two-way contest. That is a regional, two-party measure, so it is not directly comparable with the by-election count. In an interview with the Guardian the previous Friday, Mr Polanski called the contest “probably 50/50” and “really on a knife-edge”. The bookmakers’ prices pointed the other way, and the result matched them.

Video: Sky News report on the Holborn and St Pancras by-election contest (Sky News / YouTube)

Why the result drew attention beyond one seat

The Guardian described the contest as a test of whether Mr Burnham can unite Labour’s voters or whether Mr Polanski can peel off support from the party’s progressive flank. It said the Greens had hoped to repeat their February by-election win in Gorton and Denton. Shortly after that win, YouGov put the Greens on 21%, a few points ahead of Labour. The latest YouGov survey, the Guardian said, had Labour on 27% and the Greens 16 points behind.

The Guardian noted that almost half of the constituency’s residents are aged between 18 and 34, and that about 45% were born overseas. Mr Polanski had argued that electing him would put pressure on Labour to adopt stronger rent controls, more action on the climate and public ownership of Thames Water.

The closing days were overshadowed by a row inside the Green Party. Members voted at its conference, by 1,022 votes to 813, for a motion the Guardian described as equating Zionism with racism, despite opposition from four of the party’s five MPs. Mr Polanski, who is Jewish, was reported to have left early and did not vote. Mr Burnham called the motion “completely wrong”, and Labour chair Bridget Phillipson said it held “British Jews to a standard that we do not apply to others”. Mr Polanski, asked repeatedly about it, said that he believed displacement of Palestinian people and “ongoing genocide” were racist.

What happens next after the by-election

Mr Polanski said the Greens should now “take their fight to Burnham’s Labour” and focus on whether the government’s budget on 28 October delivers. “So many people told me on the doorstep that they want to give Andy Burnham a chance,” he told broadcasters. “Well, he’s got a chance now. Let’s see what he does with it.”

His leadership remains a live question. Former Green leader Caroline Lucas told the BBC she wanted him to “show the leadership that was frankly missing on Sunday”, adding: “I think just let’s see what happens in the coming days and weeks.” Before polling, he told the Guardian his leadership did not depend on victory.

Before the count, the Evening Standard said that if Mr Polanski trailed by a few thousand votes, he could argue he might do better in Hackney or Lewisham at the next general election. It added that a heavy defeat would raise questions about his leadership. The final margin of 3,364 falls within the “few thousand” the Standard described, though the sources do not say how the Greens will read it. The Independent also reported that pollsters warned the so-called “Burnham bounce” may already have peaked, so the budget and later polls will show whether Labour’s position holds.

How voting worked on Thursday 8 October

Camden Council said polls were open from 7am to 10pm on Thursday 8 October, and anyone in the queue by 10pm could still vote. The deadlines to register, to apply for a postal or proxy vote and to apply for a Voter Authority Certificate had passed before polling day.

Voters at polling stations had to show original photo ID, such as a passport, driving licence, Blue Badge, Oyster 60+ card, Freedom Pass or Proof of Age (PASS) card. Expired ID was accepted if the voter still looked like the photo, and a poll card was not needed. Three polling stations had moved, at RADA Studios, the London Irish Centre and Castlehaven Community Centre.

Postal votes counted only if returned before 10pm on Thursday. Voters could hand them in at any polling station in Camden or at Camden Town Hall, but not in council office letter boxes. Camden said votes would be counted overnight and the result published on its website. The Guardian had expected the declaration between 2:30am and 4am on Friday.