State pension triple lock to change from April 2030

The state pension triple lock is to change from April 2030, with the link to average earnings removed, according to Wales Online. Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced the move in his Labour Party conference speech, saying the Government would “adjust” the policy.

Mr Burnham said the state pension would still “hold its value relative to earnings over time, so that pensioners will always share in the rising prosperity of the nation”. Sir Steve Webb, the former pensions minister who helped bring in the triple lock, says pensions will still rise every year but by less than they would have done.

What is the triple lock, and what changes

Under the current policy, the state pension rises every April by whichever is highest: average earnings growth, price inflation or 2.5%. Wales Online reports that from April 2030 the earnings measure will be removed, leaving only inflation and the 2.5% minimum. In practice, a pensioner would get the higher of those two figures each year.

Speaking on the BBC’s Money Box, Sir Steve said: “Every year pensioners will definitely get [an increase in line with] inflation, so that’s if prices go up. And if that’s a very low number, they’ll always get 2.5 per cent.” He also described what he called a third leg “lurking” in the plan, under which the pension would always stay at a certain share of average wages.

His round-number example was a pension worth 30% of average pay today, which “will never dip below that”. The sources do not set out how that share would be measured or protected, so the detail will matter once the Government publishes it. The comparison below is drawn from Wales Online’s account of the current rule and the announced change.

Video: BBC Politics report on Burnham’s triple lock pension adjustment announcement (BBC Politics / YouTube)

Who pays less under the Andy Burnham state pension plan

The people affected are current and future pensioners, because the increase they receive each April will be calculated differently from 2030. Sir Steve said the change “will save the Government money, that’s partly why they’ve done it”. He added that it is “not like going back to the ’80s and ’90s when it was just price inflation”.

On the size of the effect, he said: “Pensions will still go up every year, at least 2.5 per cent every year, but over the coming years by less than they would have done.” By 2040, a decade after the policy starts, he said pensions would be “about £1,000 a year per pensioner lower than they would have been”. They would still be higher than now.

The sources do not say who, if anyone, would be better off. Pensioners would not lose money in cash terms, but they would fall behind the path they would have followed if earnings had outpaced prices.

Two other changes sit alongside the plan, according to Wales Online. The State Pension age is rising from 66 to 67 in stages, beginning in April 2026 and finishing by April 2028. A new policy will also be put into legislation so people whose only income is the full state pension do not pay income tax on it, with details due at the Autumn Budget 2027.

A worked example: what £1,000 a year looks like

Sir Steve’s figure is a gap by 2040, not a yearly loss that starts at £1,000. Spread over twelve months, £1,000 a year is about £83 a month, or roughly £19 a week. That is the amount by which an average pensioner’s income in 2040 would trail the old rules, on his calculation.

Here is a simplified illustration, with made-up numbers rather than forecasts. Suppose a pension is £10,000 a year, and in one year prices rise 1.5% while earnings rise 4%. Under the current rule the increase is 4%, or £400. Under the new rule it would be the 2.5% minimum, or £250, a difference of £150 in that single year.

If that pattern repeated, the gap would build over time, which is how a figure like £1,000 by 2040 arises. The share-of-earnings protection Sir Steve described may narrow the gap, but the sources do not say by how much. Treat these numbers as an illustration of the mechanism, not a prediction of your own pension.

What to do now

Nothing changes immediately, since the new calculation applies from April 2030. The sensible response is to adjust planning assumptions rather than act in haste. If you expect to rely heavily on the state pension in the 2030s, assume it may grow more slowly than the old triple lock would have delivered.

Check your own State Pension age against the rising timetable, because the move from 66 to 67 depends on date of birth, according to the Liverpool Echo. If your only income in retirement may be the full state pension, watch for the Autumn Budget 2027, where the Government is due to explain how the income tax exemption will work. Policy details can shift between an announcement and legislation, so look for the published rules before making decisions that are hard to reverse.

Your questions answered

What will the triple lock mean for pensioners?

Pensioners should still see a rise every April of at least 2.5%, or more if inflation is higher. What disappears from 2030 is the extra boost when average earnings grow faster than both. Sir Steve Webb expects pensions to be about £1,000 a year lower per pensioner by 2040 than under the current rules.

Is the State Pension age going up?

Yes. Wales Online reports that the age is rising from 66 to 67 in a gradual process that began in April 2026 and will finish by April 2028. The Liverpool Echo says the rise affects people according to their date of birth.

Could the State Pension age be cut to 65?

A petition by Michelle Gill, launched on 16 September, asks for exactly that. It has passed 10,000 signatures, so the Government must respond, the Liverpool Echo reports. It would be considered for a full parliamentary debate if it reaches 100,000 signatures, and it stays open until 16 March 2027. The petition runs against current legislation, and nothing in the sources suggests the Government plans to change course.