Labour leads Reform 27% to 22% in YouGov poll, the first significant lead in three months

YouGov’s latest poll for The Times and Sky News, taken on 4 and 5 October, puts Labour on 27% and Reform UK on 22%. YouGov said this is a five-point lead, with Labour up three points on its previous poll, and Labour’s highest figure in its tracker since January 2025.

YouGov also described it as “the first statistically significant lead for any party in our tracker in three months”. That is a firmer statement than a single headline number usually carries, but it is still one poll, and May’s Scottish Parliament results show how differently votes can fall in practice.

The YouGov figures in full

YouGov’s release says the poll surveyed 2,312 adults aged 18 and over in Great Britain online, with fieldwork on 4 and 5 October. The changes below are measured against its previous poll, taken on 27 and 28 September. YouGov said the Conservatives’ 20% is within the margin of error of the 19% they recorded last week, and that the Lib Dem and Green figures are also within the margin of error of last week’s.

Our own arithmetic shows how big the movement is. In the previous poll Reform stood on 25% and Labour on 24%, so Reform led by 1 point. Now Labour leads by 5, a six-point swing in the gap in a week. Reform was still polling at around 30% at the start of this year, according to HuffPost UK, which makes 22% an eight-point fall over nine months.

The Independent warned that Reform’s numbers have been volatile. It said a YouGov poll the previous week put Reform ahead for the first time since August, only a week after YouGov had it third behind the Conservatives.

What is being linked to the shift

HuffPost said Andy Burnham’s honeymoon “shows no sign of ending”. It also cited a poll of polls by Election Maps UK, which it said shows the two parties neck and neck in July, when Mr Burnham took over from Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister, and Labour’s lead since stretching to more than 3 points. The Independent linked the latest three-point rise to Mr Burnham’s Labour Party conference speech, and reported that he pledged a free national social care service, public ownership of key utilities and a reconsideration of UK-EU relations.

The reports also point to pressures on Reform. HuffPost said Parliament’s standards commissioner is investigating whether Nigel Farage should have declared a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, received shortly before he became an MP in 2024. It also said the Metropolitan Police have opened an investigation following a Channel 4 documentary which, in HuffPost’s description, appeared to show senior Reform figures trying to solicit money from a foreign donor. An investigation is not a finding of wrongdoing, and neither matter has produced a finding in the material we have seen. Responses from Mr Farage and Reform UK are not included in that material.

The Independent added that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is competing for votes on Reform’s right, and reported rumours of an early election. It said Mr Burnham has dismissed the idea, and that some pollsters argue the so-called Burnham bounce may already have peaked. The sources we used do not give the date of the next general election, so this poll should not be read as a forecast of its outcome.

How a real vote compares: Lanarkshire in May

Polls measure stated support. Elections measure who turns out. The Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday 7 May, and councils in Lanarkshire declared results in which the SNP won every constituency listed below. Labour came second and Reform UK third in each one.

The regional list tells a tighter story. In the Central Scotland and Lothians West region, Reform UK polled 58,334 votes against Labour’s 57,103, or 20.6% and 20.1% of the 283,530 votes cast, by our calculation. Reform took three of the seven regional seats and Labour two. Those results predate the July change of prime minister, so they say nothing about the movement YouGov now reports.

What it means for readers

A 5-point lead in one poll is a reading, not a result. YouGov’s own wording, a lead that is statistically significant for the first time in three months, is a reason to take it seriously, but the Scottish figures show how much margins vary: Labour’s lead over Reform ranged from 380 votes in Airdrie to 3,712 in East Kilbride, and Reform finished narrowly ahead on the regional list.

Here is how to read the next poll you see. First, check the fieldwork dates, which for this one were 4 and 5 October, and who commissioned it, here The Times and Sky News. Second, compare the change with the margin of error, as YouGov did for the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens. Third, look at whether other pollsters show the same direction, since a poll of polls such as the Election Maps UK average smooths out the week-to-week swings that the Independent noted in Reform’s numbers.

The next YouGov figures will show whether the three-point rise holds or fades. Until several pollsters agree over a few weeks, the safest reading is that Labour has moved ahead of Reform in this tracker and that the size of the gap is still uncertain.