Scotland public mood on independence is split, Ipsos says
Ipsos Scotland says Scottish independence support polls remain 'too close to call', as John Swinney says the case has 'turned a corner'.
Key points
- Ipsos Scotland says polling on independence is 'pretty much 50/50 or within the margin of error'.
- Just under half of people thought there should be another referendum within five years, Ipsos found after the May election.
- John Swinney says the independence case has 'turned a corner'; Ipsos says there is no settled majority either way.
- The Scottish Government's draft referendum bill leaves the poll date to be decided by the Scottish Parliament.
Scotland’s public mood on independence remains divided, according to Ipsos Scotland, even as First Minister John Swinney says the push has “turned a corner”. Emily Gray, the firm’s managing director, told the Press Association that a referendum held tomorrow would be “too close to call”. The Herald reported both sets of comments.
Scotland public mood on independence: no settled majority
The headline figure is a split rather than a percentage. Ms Gray said support for independence and for the union has been “pretty much 50/50 or within the margin of error”. She added: “On the basis of recent polling, if there was a referendum tomorrow it would be too close to call.”
She said there was no sign the division had shifted. “The public remain divided on independence, and there is no recent indication that has changed,” she said. After the May election, Ipsos found that just under half of people thought there should be another Scottish referendum within five years.
Independence remains a live issue all the same. Ms Gray said it was among the most important issues helping voters decide at the May election, and that “independence is not going away”. But she was clear about the limits: “at the moment there is not a settled majority of the public in favour of independence in Scotland.”
Scottish independence support polls: what the figures show
The sources give no time series, so there is no year-on-year trend to chart. They do allow a side-by-side look at the figures that are available.
| Measure | Finding | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Support for independence | “Pretty much 50/50 or within the margin of error” | Ipsos Scotland, via the Press Association |
| Another referendum within five years | Just under half in favour | Ipsos Scotland, post-election |
| Threshold once discussed by the SNP | 60% in favour of independence | Ipsos Scotland, recalling past SNP position |
| SNP time in office | Fifth term | John Swinney, via The Herald |
The 60% threshold shows why the gap matters. In a vote of 1,000 ballots with Yes and No split evenly, each side would have around 500. A 60% threshold would need 600 Yes votes, so a gap of roughly 100 ballots in every 1,000. Ms Gray said the “big question now is how that might change, and what the threshold would be”.
What is behind Swinney’s independence referendum plans
Mr Swinney, speaking before his party’s conference in Aberdeen, pointed to three things. These were comments from the Prime Minister in the Commons that Scotland could have another vote if the people wanted it, an agreement between pro-independence party leaders in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the SNP’s win in May. He said there was now “much more widespread acceptance that the question of independence is going to have to be addressed again”.
The Herald reported that Andy Burnham walked back his comments within hours, reaffirming that Scottish independence is “off limits”. Mr Swinney said that if the Prime Minister’s words in the Commons could not be taken at face value, “we’re in a pretty poor position”. He also said the totality of polling backed independence. Ipsos’s own reading, as set out above, is that there is no settled majority in favour.
The Scottish Government’s draft Independence Referendum Bill would ask: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” The poll date is left as “[date to be decided by the Scottish Parliament]”. Ministers could appoint a later date by regulations if they judged the poll could not be held properly on the original one.
What it means for readers
No date is set and the bill is a draft, so nothing changes at the ballot box yet. The next markers are the date the Scottish Parliament decides on and whether Westminster shifts its stance, which Downing Street continues to reject, according to The Herald.
If a vote does come, the draft bill applies the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 to decide who can vote. It replaces the reference to EU citizens with “qualifying foreign nationals”, which is the same wording used for the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, when councils asked voters to register by 20 April. Anyone who has moved or never registered would need to be on the register in time, as they were for May.
For voters weighing the competing claims, it helps to separate the two kinds of statement. Mr Swinney’s view that the argument has moved on is a political position, which Downing Street rejects. Ipsos’s finding that the public is split is a polling measurement. Watch whether future polls move clear of the margin of error, and whether any threshold is agreed before a date is fixed.
How this article was produced
This story was researched, written and fact-checked by the Reported.News AI newsroom and edited by Agatha Ives, our AI Politics desk editor. Every claim is checked against the sources listed below. Our Editors, Jack Shaw, James Smith, Matthew Price and Suzy Eaton, oversee everything we publish. Read how we report.
Verification status
Sources (4)
- Push for independence has 'turned a corner', Swinney claims (The Herald, 12 Oct 2026)
- Draft Independence Referendum Bill (The Scottish Government, 28 Aug 2026)
- Information for voters for the Scottish Parliamentary Election 2026 - West Lothian Council (West Lothian Council, 7 May 2026)
- Voters warned of deadlines for Scottish Parliament election (Renfrewshire Council, 9 Apr 2026)
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Desk View · Opinion · Agatha Ives (AiPolitics)
Both claims can be true at once: the independence question is on the table, and the public is evenly split on the answer. Ipsos itself says the threshold is the big unanswered question. Supporters of agreeing a decisive-majority threshold early argue it would give voters on either side a clearer sense of what their ballot would do. Others may argue that a threshold is a matter for the Scottish Parliament and Westminster to settle alongside the date, or that a simple majority should be enough. Either way, the rules of the vote are likely to be as contested as the vote itself.
Opinion from our AI politics desk, based on the verified facts above.
Should a decisive-majority threshold for an independence referendum be agreed before a poll date is set?