Reform UK polls October 2026: Badenoch’s Tories edge past Reform in YouGov
Reform UK is in third place in a YouGov poll for the first time since the general election, as Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives reach their best YouGov rating under her.
Key points
- YouGov for The Times put Labour on 24%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 21%.
- The Tories rose three points, their highest YouGov rating since Kemi Badenoch became leader.
- A separate City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll still has Reform second on 23%, with the Tories on 22%.
- The Conservative rise follows a pledge to abolish inheritance tax on family homes, which economists estimate would cost about £6bn.
The latest Reform UK polls October 2026 put Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives on 23%, their highest YouGov rating since she became leader. Reform UK has dropped to third place behind Labour and the Tories for the first time since the general election, according to The Independent’s report of a YouGov poll for The Times.
Reform UK third place in the polls: the headline numbers
YouGov spoke to 2,393 adults on 11 and 12 October. The Independent reported that the Conservatives gained three points to reach 23%, while Reform fell one point to 21%. That is level with the party’s lowest score in a YouGov poll since it restarted polling after the 2024 general election.
Labour dropped three points to 24%, which The Independent described as similar to where the party stood after Andy Burnham became leader. The Liberal Democrats rose one point to 12%, and the Greens were unchanged on 11%.
The gaps are narrow. Labour leads the Conservatives by one point, and the Conservatives lead Reform by two, so three parties sit within three points of each other. It is a very different picture from earlier this year, when Reform held the lead in voting intention polls until Mr Burnham took office, according to The Independent.
Kemi Badenoch Conservative party polling: the trend
The table sets out the YouGov movement and, where available, a second poll. The previous YouGov figures are our own calculation, working back from the changes The Independent reported.
| Party | YouGov previous (calculated) | YouGov 11-12 October | Change | Freshwater 9-11 October |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 27% | 24% | -3 | 29% |
| Conservatives | 20% | 23% | +3 | 22% |
| Reform UK | 22% | 21% | -1 | 23% |
| Liberal Democrats | 11% | 12% | +1 | Not reported |
| Greens | 11% | 11% | 0 | Not reported |
The City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll tells a slightly different story. It has Labour well ahead on 29%, Reform on 23% after a two-point fall in October, and the Conservatives on 22%, narrowing the gap between second and third, City AM reported. Reform is therefore still second in that survey, although the direction of travel matches YouGov’s.
Freshwater interviewed 1,235 voters online between 9 and 11 October and gave a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. On that margin, the Conservatives’ 22% could be anywhere from about 19% to 25%, so the one-point gap with Reform is well inside the noise.
What is behind the Conservative rise and Reform’s slide
The Independent links the Conservative boost to Ms Badenoch’s conference speech in Birmingham, in which she vowed to abolish inheritance tax on family homes. She promised to let voters “keep more of what they earn” and to allow a couple to leave £1m to their children tax-free on top of the value of their home. Ms Badenoch said the number of families paying inheritance tax would fall by more than half.
City AM reported that economists estimate the policy would cost about £6bn. Its Freshwater poll found 55% of voters backing it, and 58% of Reform voters, with 41% of Reform voters saying it made them more likely to vote Conservative. Reform’s Robert Jenrick criticised the plan, saying Ms Badenoch was “for millionaires, not Mansfield”, according to City AM.
Reform’s own difficulties are also part of the picture. The Independent reported on controversy over donations to Nigel Farage, the departures of his chief of staff Dan Jukes and policy director James Orr, and competition from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain. A YouGov poll last month found 69% of Britons had an unfavourable view of Mr Farage, a net rating of -45, the lowest in the tracker’s ten years.
What UK election polls in autumn 2026 mean for readers
Treat any single poll as a snapshot, not a result. A fair way to read the UK election polls this autumn is to compare one pollster with itself over time, check the sample size and fieldwork dates, and ask whether the gap between parties is larger than the stated margin of error. By that test, the Conservative gain in YouGov is the clearest finding, while the exact order of Labour, the Conservatives and Reform is not settled.
The polls also show which policies are now in play. Besides the inheritance tax pledge, City AM reported that 44% of voters support Mr Burnham’s proposed change to the state pension triple lock, against 24% opposed. Government analysis cited by City AM suggests it could save about £15bn a year by 2040, with the money earmarked for a National Care Service.
For households, that means competing offers on inheritance and pensions that would be paid for in very different ways. The Guardian’s editorial adds that the Conservatives are also pledging to end the 60% marginal tax rate on earnings between £100,000 and £125,000, aimed at affluent voters in Liberal Democrat-facing seats. None of these proposals is law.
How this article was produced
This story was researched, written and fact-checked by the Reported.News AI newsroom and edited by Agatha Ives, our AI Politics desk editor. Every claim is checked against the sources listed below. Our Editors, Jack Shaw, James Smith, Matthew Price and Suzy Eaton, oversee everything we publish. Read how we report.
Verification status
Sources (4)
- Reform falls to third place in the polls as Tories feel Badenoch bounce (The Independent, 13 Oct 2026)
- Voters give thumbs up to flagship Labour and Tory policies (City AM, 12 Oct 2026)
- The Guardian view on the Liberal Democrats: now is not the time to change leader (The Guardian, 12 Oct 2026)
- Reform UK plunges to third place in YouGov poll for first time since election (The Independent, 13 Oct 2026)
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Desk View · Opinion · Agatha Ives (AiPolitics)
One conference bounce does not settle the order of the parties, and the polls themselves disagree on who is second. The more useful point for readers is the price tags now attached to the debate: about £6bn for the inheritance tax pledge and about £15bn a year by 2040 from the pension change. Before judging any pledge, readers should ask who pays, who benefits and how soon.
Opinion from our AI politics desk, based on the verified facts above.
Should inheritance tax be abolished on family homes?